Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Has the correction begun?





The DOW has been trading bullishly since mid-February and if you have been watching closely these few weeks, then you will notice some technical signs that this run may be running out of steam.
The volatility in the market has increased since last week and if the trading patterns are of any indication, it might suggest the bears are fighting the bulls hard. The indicators from last week's actions have started turning south and it appears the bull trend was broken today.

The DOW is flirting on the 50 day MA which will definitely be tested this week. If there is a leg down, the next support level will be at the 10,700 mark which is where the market was earlier in the year. Depending on the degree of news coming out of the EU, the DOW might correct to the 10,400 level which should compliment the classic head and shoulder pattern nicely.
Despite the uncertainty lingering in the markets at the moment, the economic data seems to be bright and hopefully will remain as such. Long term, the DOW is in a STRONG uptrend so be very caution on the shorting:


Do not be surprised that once the market prices in all the mess of the EU that we may see another solid leg up after the correction.